Análisis semanal de mercados: Fed, petróleo y valoración del S&P

Weekly market analysis: the Fed faces an expensive stock market and higher oil: Weekly market analysis:

weekly market analysis: updated analysis with context for investors.

Weekly market analysis:: updated analysis with context for investors.

• 📊 The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,656.98 and the Nasdaq at 26,333.04, with a negative weekly performance despite the late rebound.
• 🛢️ Brent ended Friday at $105.00, after moving above $100 during the week due to the conflict in the Middle East.
• 🏦 The Fed holds its meeting on September 16 at 20:00 Madrid time, with the press conference at 20:30 Madrid time.

The weekly market analysis leads to one central conclusion: equities are holding up, but they are doing so with demanding valuations, an upward energy shock, and the Fed in immediate focus. Wall Street avoided a more severe correction on Friday, although the weekly balance was weaker in the United States than in the European stock market. For Iberian and Latin American readers, the operational message is clear: the direction of real rates and crude oil will shape the short-term bias in banks, utilities, consumer stocks, and tech.

What happened this week

Friday closes: better relative tone in the IBEX, more pressure on Wall Street

On Friday, September 11, the S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98 at 22:46 Madrid time, down 0.80% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,333.04, with a weekly decline of 0.66%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 6,322.25, down 1.28% for the week, while the IBEX 35 ended at 19,838.50, up 0.91% on the day and showing better relative performance over the week.

The tactical picture is relevant. The United States corrected less in price than continental Europe, but it reaches the Fed meeting with far more demanding multiples. The IBEX held up better because of its sector composition. Santander, BBVA, and Iberdrola act as a thermometer: banks hold up if the curve does not flatten excessively, but cost of risk and bad loans remain the key nuance; in utilities, the cost of debt limits valuation expansion.

Market breadth maintained a mixed reading. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,903.94, leaving a Russell 2000/S&P 500 ratio of 0.3793. The VIX ended at 15.84. That combination suggests moderate risk appetite, but with leadership still concentrated. If the Russell does not accelerate versus the S&P, index gains will continue to rely more on large caps linked to technology and structural growth.

August inflation in the U.S.: pressure builds ahead of the Fed meeting

The macro data point of the week was August CPI in the United States, released on Friday, September 11 at 14:30 Madrid time, equivalent to 8:30 ET. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and the annual CPI-W rate advanced to 3.5%. In addition, the BLS has already set the next September CPI release for Wednesday, October 14 at 14:30 Madrid time.

The market reading is straightforward. With energy moving higher and monthly inflation firmer, the Fed arrives at its meeting with less room for a benign shift in its message. It does not need to raise rates to tighten financial conditions. A more cautious tone on inflation, oil, and expectations is enough. That channel hits long duration first, high-multiple software, and discretionary consumer names with less margin visibility.

In the eurozone, the effect is transmitted through two channels. First, through the global discounting of rates, which affects ASML and the European growth block. Second, through energy, where more expensive crude complicates the inflation-import picture. For banks such as Santander and BBVA, higher rates help net interest income, but that benefit is not linear: more persistent inflation also puts pressure on credit quality and increases sensitivity to sovereign spreads.

Cross-asset: EUR/USD, Treasuries, gold, and Brent redefine the risk premium

The most influential move of the week was in energy. Brent closed at $105.00 on Friday, September 11, versus $96.28 a week earlier. The jump in crude coincided with the escalation in the Middle East and reopened the debate over second-round inflation. In currencies, the dollar maintained a firm bias ahead of the price data, while the euro remained constrained by the growth divergence.

Geopolitics activated a classic mechanism: higher oil, higher implied inflation, stickier long rates, and compression in equity multiples. Reuters explained that Brent rose above $100 for the first time since late July and that the market fears further supply disruptions. It also stressed that if Brent remains above $100, transport and manufacturing costs would rise and rates would stay high for longer.

The institutional metric of the week is relative valuation. Barclays raised its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $365. With the index at 7,656.98, the implied P/E stands at 20.98x and the earnings yield at 4.77%. Against a 10-year Treasury around 4.15%, the calculated ERP stands at 0.62 percentage points. That is not a wide premium. It leaves Nvidia, Microsoft, and the semiconductor block highly dependent on earnings growth continuing to offset the cost of money. In Europe, Inditex and defensive consumer stocks start from less multiple pressure, but with greater sensitivity to margin elasticity if energy tightens.

What could move markets next week

Corporate earnings: focus on Oracle and Adobe as a gauge of tech spending

The immediate earnings reference comes from Oracle and Adobe. Yahoo Finance places Oracle on Thursday, September 10 after the close and Adobe also after the close. Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue digesting both sets of guidance, capex, and corporate demand commentary, because they are useful for reading investment in software, cloud, and applied artificial intelligence.

Base case (55%): Oracle and Adobe confirm solid demand, but with cautious comments on sales cycles and costs. That would maintain support for Nvidia and the infrastructure segment, although with less multiple expansion. Bullish scenario (25%): the companies validate accelerating enterprise spending and AI monetization. In that case, the Nasdaq 100, semiconductors, and software would resume leadership. Adverse scenario (20%): the message points to greater customer discipline and margin pressure. That outcome would hurt long-duration growth and favor rotation into banks, energy, and defensives.

The sector implication is broad. If software holds up, ASML, data-center capex, and equipment manufacturers retain fundamental support. If guidance softens, the reading is not just about earnings. It also affects valuation, because a P/E near 21x on the S&P requires repeated EPS confirmation. There, the market will be less tolerant of any disappointment in visibility.

Next week’s macro: Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 16

The dominant event will be the Fed. The central bank’s official calendar sets the end of the meeting for Wednesday, September 16 at 20:00 Madrid time, equivalent to 14:00 ET, and the press conference at 20:30 Madrid time, equivalent to 14:30 ET. Double-checking the timing is critical: 8:30 ET is 14:30 Madrid time on this date, so 14:00 ET is 20:00 Madrid time.

Base case (50%): the Fed holds rates and toughens its language on energy inflation and resilient activity. That would favor a firm dollar, stable to slightly higher long Treasuries, and a selective bias in equities. Bullish scenario (20%): Powell acknowledges energy tension, but leaves the door open to more future flexibility if core inflation cools. In that case, the Nasdaq, small caps, and utilities could rebound. Adverse scenario (30%): the committee raises its concern about oil and inflation and reinforces a restrictive bias. That outcome would hurt duration, consumer names, and dollar-sensitive emerging assets.

For Europe, the Fed’s message matters more than any single data point. A firm dollar pressures EUR/USD and tightens global financial conditions. In the domestic stock market, BBVA and Santander tend to absorb that environment better than Iberdrola or consumer stocks. Even so, banks do not automatically win. If yields rise too quickly, the market reopens the debate over bad loans, wholesale funding costs, and peripheral spreads.

Geopolitics: the Middle East and oil, the risk that could change everything

The dominant geopolitical risk remains the Middle East. Reuters explained this week that Brent moved above $100 because of rising tensions and that the market fears further disruptions to crude shipments. It added two figures that matter to investors: non-OPEC producers would increase supply by 1.4 million barrels per day this year, but demand destruction in petrochemicals and transport is still around 3.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter. The additional supply cushions, but does not neutralize, a transport shock or physical tightening.

Base case (50%): the conflict does not escalate into a material shutdown of flows and Brent stabilizes in a high range. In that case, energy, defense, and the dollar retain support, while consumer and transport stocks remain under watch. Bullish scenario (15%): partial improvement in shipping flows or diplomatic signals reduce the risk premium. There, we would see relief in bonds, a better tone for growth, and a recovery in European cyclical sectors. Adverse scenario (35%): new disruptions push crude sustainably higher. That would imply downward pressure on industrial margins, more inflation tension, and a greater hit to stock markets with high multiples.

The transmission to the market is specific. Brent above $100 affects expected inflation, logistics costs, and disposable income. For Iberdrola and utilities, higher yields raise the cost of capital. For Inditex and consumer stocks, the key is whether they can defend margins without destroying volume. In Latin America, Mexico and Colombia are especially sensitive through the oil-dollar channel, while Chile remains more tied to the global growth and copper cycle.

Conclusion

The week ends with an uncomfortable, but still manageable, combination: stock markets at high levels, oil once again above $100, and a Fed heading into its meeting with less friendly recent inflation. My central scenario remains one of continuity, not rupture, but with a smaller margin for error than a month ago. Earnings support exists. Barclays has just raised its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $365, and that supports part of the valuation. The problem is that the cushion versus bonds is no longer wide. An ERP of 0.62 points leaves little room to tolerate surprises in rates or energy.

What would invalidate the base case? Two elements. First, the Fed adopts a clearly more restrictive tone than expected on Wednesday, September 16. Second, Brent settles above $105 and passes sustained pressure into inflation expectations. If those two conditions occur at the same time, rotation into defensives, the dollar, and gold hedging would be the natural response. In portfolios, the most logical hedge still involves tactical cash, short duration, selective exposure to energy, and close monitoring of the Nvidia-ASML pair as a leading indicator of appetite for growth. If that leadership fails and the Russell does not take over, the market will enter a narrower and less comfortable phase for chasing price.

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice.

Keep reading on the blog: Stock market keys of the week: Fed, oil, and consumer spending and Wall Street today: higher oil and lower stock markets.