Euro-dollar today: EUR/USD falls to 1.1226 and holds above 1.12

The euro cools against the dollar as the market looks to tomorrow’s data: euro dollar today

euro dollar today: updated analysis with context for investors.

The euro dollar today is trading at 1.1226 at 20:30 (12:30 in Mexico City), down 0.08% from Wednesday’s close. The pair remains near 1.12, but without the strength to rebound, in a session marked by eurozone consumer confidence below expectations and by a somewhat steadier dollar after the release of the U.S. leading index and ahead of next week’s ECB and Fed meetings.

Data at 20:30 (Madrid time) on October 22, 2026.

EUR/USD: the euro gives ground, but avoids a deeper break

EUR/USD is moving between 1.1257 and 1.1193 in the session and reaches the European afternoon at 1.1226. The ECB daily reference rate for the cross has been set at 1.1205, below the previous day’s 1.1234. In addition, eurozone consumer confidence came in at -17.9 at 16:00 (8:00 in Mexico City), worse than the consensus of -17.0.

What this means. The market is reading this as the euro losing some short-term macro support just before a critical week for rates. If European growth cools and the ECB keeps a cautious tone at its 10/29 meeting at 14:15 (7:15 in Mexico City), the real-rate differential may continue to favor the dollar. For European equities, a somewhat weaker euro usually helps exporters, but that effect is overshadowed today by the deterioration in risk appetite: the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.94% and the IBEX 35 is down 2.12%. For investors based in the euro area, a firm dollar supports the euro value of U.S. assets if the currency offsets part of the equity decline.

USD/JPY: the yen regains ground as U.S. yields fall

The dollar is lower against the yen at 156.8940, a decline of 0.78% in the session, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.957% from 5.1460 at the previous close. The move comes one week before the Bank of Japan’s next meeting, scheduled for 10/29 and 10/30.

What this means. The channel here is very direct: when U.S. yields ease, the incentive to borrow cheaply in yen and buy dollar assets weakens. That reduces pressure on the Japanese currency and cools part of the carry trade. For European equities, a stronger yen does not by itself change the trend, but it does point to lower global risk tolerance. For portfolios exposed to Japan without hedging, the exchange rate becomes more important. If the yen continues to appreciate and coincides with further yield declines, the market would be pricing in an environment less favorable for assets most sensitive to liquidity.

GBP/USD: sterling rises despite weak industrial data

Sterling advances against the dollar to 1.3403, up 0.05% from Wednesday. The move comes despite the CBI industrial orders expectations in the UK being released at 12:00 (4:00 in Mexico City) at -32, worse than the consensus of -20 and the prior -9.

What this means. When a currency rises on a weak domestic data point, the market is usually paying more attention to the other side of the pair than to the isolated data release. Today that suggests the dollar’s pullback has mattered more than British industrial weakness. Even so, the margin is narrow: tomorrow at 08:00 (0:00 in Mexico City) UK retail sales are released, and at 10:30 (2:30 in Mexico City) the preliminary PMIs are due. If those readings disappoint, sterling could lose traction. For a European investor, a firmer pound improves the conversion of UK income; for a global portfolio, it also shows that the dollar does not rise in a straight line against every currency.

Dollar index: the DXY falls, but remains above 101

The DXY dollar index falls 0.17% to 101.61 at 20:20 (12:20 in Mexico City), although it still shows a 1.00% gain over one month. In the United States, the CB Leading Index came in at 0.0% at 16:00 (8:00 in Mexico City), better than the expected -0.1%, while weekly jobless claims were forecast at 200K versus a previous reading of 199K.

What this means. The DXY pullback does not yet amount to a structural turn in the dollar. It is more a pause within a recent trend of strength, with the market recalibrating growth, rates, and the length of the cycle. As long as the index remains above 101 and the Fed has its next decision on 10/28 at 19:00 (12:00 in Mexico City), demand for dollar liquidity will continue to weigh on equities, commodities, and emerging-market debt. For investors based in the euro area, this affects portfolios in two ways: currency conversion on U.S. assets and the pressure that an expensive dollar puts on global funding and corporate profits outside the United States.

USD/MXN: the dollar rises and tightens pressure on the Mexican peso

The dollar rises 0.18% against the Mexican peso to 18.7125, after marking an intraday high of 18.8568. The euro also rises against the peso to 21.0057, up 0.04%.

What this means. For Latin America, this cross matters for purchasing power, imported inflation, and financing costs. A more expensive dollar against the peso makes imports more costly and tightens conditions for issuers with liabilities in U.S. currency. For a euro-area investor with exposure to Mexico, the effect depends on hedging: without hedging, peso depreciation can reduce returns in euros; with dollar-denominated income, the hit is smaller. It is also a sign of global selectivity: when the market punishes the peso while the DXY is barely down, it is distinguishing between safe havens, cyclical currencies, and currencies sensitive to international flows.

Analyst’s read

What matters is not only that the euro ends almost flat against the dollar, but that it does so after a worse-than-expected confidence reading in the eurozone and with a clear drop in equities. Compared with last week, the market is giving less credit to a clean euro rebound and is again pricing around the cost of money, growth quality, and the need for dollar liquidity. When EUR/USD holds near 1.12 but does not clearly recover the intraday high at 1.1257, the message is one of fragile balance, not confirmed strength.

The validation of the next move is tightly framed by dates and data. Tomorrow, eurozone PMIs between 09:15 and 10:00, and U.S. PMIs at 15:45 (7:45 in Mexico City), will show whether the activity differential swings the pair again. Then come the ECB on 10/29 at 14:15 (7:15 in Mexico City) and the Fed on 10/28 at 19:00 (12:00 in Mexico City). If EUR/USD loses the intraday low of 1.1193, the market would be accepting more pressure on the euro; if it recovers 1.1257, the signal would be the opposite. The main risk remains confusing a pause in the dollar with a trend reversal when global liquidity does not yet confirm it.

To go deeper

• Previous edition of this series: EUR/USD and the dollar: the currencies driving the market today
• How to find out your risk profile — before trading any asset

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves the risk of losing the capital invested.