US CPI today: the macro data driving the stock market

U.S. CPI today and other key macro data for the stock market: U.S. CPI today: the

U.S. CPI today: the: updated analysis with context for investors.

U.S. CPI today is the reference point that can truly change the market’s tone: it is released at 14:30 Madrid time with a consensus of 3.4% year-on-year, 0.4% month-on-month, core at 2.4% and 0.2%, according to the macro calendar.

U.S. CPI

Expected at 22:30 Madrid time (14:30 Mexico City). The market expects headline CPI at 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; core at 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. It arrives with the Fed front and center on every screen.

Analysis. This is the data point that can move indices, the dollar, and yields all at once. If inflation comes in hotter, yields rise and technology, small caps, and consumer stocks suffer. If it eases, the market gets some breathing room back. Watch the core component closely: it carries the most weight in recalibrating rate expectations.

Michigan consumer sentiment

Expected at 22:30 Madrid time (14:30 Mexico City). The preliminary September reading is expected at 51.0 versus the previous 51.7, according to Forex Factory. It is released at the same time as the U.S. CPI.

Analysis. Under normal conditions it would be a secondary data point. Not today. It coincides with CPI and can reinforce or contradict the reading on consumption and growth. A clear drop would cool appetite for cyclicals and banks; an upside surprise would help support the market if inflation does not overshoot.

Lagarde speaks today

Expected at 15:00 Madrid time (7:00 Mexico City). The ECB president speaks amid intense global rate tension. There is no figure, but there is still the capacity to move the euro, European debt, and banks within minutes.

Analysis. When the market is sensitive to inflation and bonds, every nuance from the ECB matters. A hawkish tone could push European yields higher and support the euro, complicating the outlook for real estate and utilities. A cautious message would ease some of the pressure. For the IBEX, the banking reaction will be the first signal to watch.

UK GDP

Released at 08:00 Madrid time (0:00 Mexico City). July monthly GDP rose 0.4%, versus the expected 0.0% and the previous 0.3%. Industrial production was 0.2% month-on-month versus -0.2% expected; manufacturing 0.9% versus 0.2%.

Analysis. It is a better-than-expected figure and supports the idea that growth is holding up more than the market had priced in. That can support banks and cycle-linked stocks in Europe, but it can also keep rate sensitivity high. The limit: the UK does not drive the market as much as the U.S. does today.

Japan PPI

Released at 09:50 Madrid time (1:50 Mexico City). August PPI came in at 7.6% year-on-year, versus the expected 7.4% and the previous 7.7%. On a monthly basis it fell -0.2%, versus the expected 0.0% and the previous 0.4%.

Analysis. It keeps inflationary pressure alive in Japan and reinforces focus on the Bank of Japan and the yen. If the market interprets that the BOJ remains closer to tightening, it could increase tension in global bonds. It does not usually move the IBEX on its own, but it can affect overall global risk sentiment.

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice.

Keep reading on the blog: Macro data for August 17: focus on the U.S. and Europe.