Macro data today: U.S. PPI and retail sales take center stage

US PPI data and key calls driving the stock market today: Today’s macro data: PPI

US PPI data: updated analysis with context for investors.

Today’s macro data: PPI: updated analysis with context for investors.

The US PPI data are the main macro focus today, along with retail sales and several other releases that could shape the dollar, bonds, and risk appetite during the session.

US PPI

Data due at 14:30 Madrid time (7:30 Mexico City time). The market expects monthly PPI of 0.6% and annual PPI of 5.3%, after previous readings of 0.4% and 5.4%. The September core measures are also due.

Analysis. This is the most sensitive release of the day because it reopens the debate about second-round inflation after yesterday’s CPI, on October 14, 2026. If it comes in above consensus, yields rise, the dollar strengthens, and equities may reverse, especially growth stocks. If it cools, Nasdaq and consumer names get some relief. Watch the 10-year Treasury reaction: that is the real signal.

US retail sales

Due at 14:30 Madrid time (7:30 Mexico City time). Consensus points to 0.3% month-on-month for September, versus 1.2% previously. The control group also comes out at the same time.

Analysis. This is where the market finds out whether consumption is still coping with high rates or starting to bend. A strong reading supports banks, cyclical consumer stocks, and the dollar, but it can also weigh on equities if it delays Fed cuts. A weak reading would support the slowdown narrative and ease yields, although it would punish cyclical sectors. It is binary: growth versus rates.

Eurosystem reserves and liquidity

Publication expected at 12:00 Madrid time (5:00 Mexico City time). The ECB releases the international reserves and foreign-currency liquidity templates for the Eurosystem in line with today’s statistical calendar.

Analysis. It does not usually trigger an immediate move in indices, but it can affect the euro and sovereign debt if it shows notable changes in liquidity buffers. For European equities, the significance lies less in the headline and more in the context: any liquidity strain or unusual foreign-currency use reinforces caution in banks and in assets sensitive to funding.

Euro area investment fund statistics

Published at 10:00 Madrid time (3:00 Mexico City time). The ECB is releasing today’s euro area investment fund figures, a snapshot of regional flows and financial exposure.

Analysis. This is not a top-tier release like CPI or employment, but it does provide a useful read on risk appetite, credit, and duration in Europe. If it shows a rotation into money market funds or outflows from equities, that confirms caution. If flows into risk assets improve, it supports banks, asset managers, and the European cyclical bloc. It is a background signal, not an instant catalyst.

UK monthly GDP

Published at 09:00 Madrid time (2:00 Mexico City time). August GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month versus -0.1% expected and 0.4% previously. The annual rate came in at 2.1% versus the 1.7% estimate.

Analysis. It has already given an initial signal: UK activity is holding up better than expected. That supports sterling, banks, and cyclical European names through sentiment spillover, although its ability to move the broader market is limited compared with what happens this afternoon in the US. If London keeps the positive surprise and the US does not disappoint, risk sentiment can hold up for longer.

Harmonised CPI for France

Published at 09:45 Madrid time (2:45 Mexico City time). September monthly harmonised CPI was -0.3% versus -0.4% expected; the annual rate came in at 3.4%, in line with consensus and the previous reading.

Analysis. It does not change the ECB backdrop on its own, but it does help refine the reading of European disinflation. Since it does not come as a major surprise, its direct impact on equities is low. Still, a contained price profile in a core economy supports rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities. The limit is clear: without a surprise, Wall Street sets the tone this afternoon.

The session is therefore split in two: Europe digests secondary data, and the whole market waits for the decisive US retail sales and PPI releases at 14:30 Madrid time (7:30 Mexico City time). That is where today’s direction in bonds, the dollar, and equities will be decided.

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice.

Keep reading on the blog: US CPI and Beige Book: the macro data driving the market today and Today’s macro data: German CPI and the Fed calendar take center stage.