Oil prices today: Brent at $109.80, but gas is driving the market

Crude eases, but energy costs are still relentless: oil price today

Today I am focusing on an only seemingly oddity: the oil price today is easing, but energy pressure is not going away. Brent is down to $109.80 at 13:50 (5:50 in Mexico City), -2.98%, while natural gas is accelerating sharply. For European stocks, that changes the split between winners and losers more than the crude headline suggests.

Quotes as of 14:00 (Madrid time) on 23 October 2026.

Brent: down 2.98%, but still at levels that support the sector

Brent is down to $109.80 at 13:50 (5:50 in Mexico City), from $113.17 at Thursday’s close on 22/10. The move comes with a somewhat firmer dollar, with the DXY at 101.80 and EUR/USD at 1.1194. Crude is correcting, yes, but off a year-to-date gain of 80.44%.

What it means for stocks. For oil companies, a daily drop in Brent does not instantly change the margin picture if the barrel is still above $100. Repsol is up 3.64% to €29.29 at 13:44 (5:44 in Mexico City), a sign that the market is still rewarding cash generation and cash flow more than a one-off pullback in the future contract. On the other side, airlines are only getting partial relief: IAG is down 1.52% to €4.7990. The market is not yet buying the idea of cheap fuel. And rightly so: one session does not dismantle a demanding cost structure.

WTI: rebounds 1.23% and leaves a split oil market

WTI is up to $100.69 at 13:50 (5:50 in Mexico City), +1.23%, with an intraday high of $101.35. The fact that U.S. crude is advancing while Brent is falling is no minor detail. It points to a less linear market, with regional and supply factors weighing differently.

What it means for stocks. This gap between benchmarks makes the read more complicated for refiners, transport firms and chemicals companies, because it introduces noise into hedges and margins. In Europe, investors watch Brent; in the United States, many energy valuations react more to WTI. For ExxonMobil and Chevron, whose latest close was on Thursday 22/10, the support remains a three-digit U.S. crude price. For airlines, by contrast, the message is less friendly: if one benchmark rises and the other does not break lower, fuel remains a problem. That limits any clear sector rebound.

TTF natural gas: up 4.17% and unsettling utilities again

Dutch TTF gas rises to €93.80 at 13:31 (5:31 in Mexico City), after closing Thursday at €90.04. It is up 30.26% in a month and 233.08% on the year. This, to me, is one of the day’s real keys: Europe can tolerate a somewhat lower Brent price; a gas spike is much worse news.

What it means for stocks. Utilities and electricity-intensive industries are once again under pressure, although the market discounts it company by company and through regulation, not as a block. Naturgy is down 0.39% to €30.64, a modest move that should not mislead: when TTF rebounds like this, sensitivity to costs, hedges and regulatory risk rises. Pulp and paper, chemicals, steelmakers and part of European industrial consumption also suffer. Acerinox manages to rise 1.15%, but ArcelorMittal falls 1.56%; that divergence is a reminder that it is not enough to look at one commodity. You have to look at the energy cost that accompanies the cycle.

Henry Hub: jumps 10.73% and complicates the energy truce

U.S. natural gas climbs to $3.0960 at 13:50 (5:50 in Mexico City), with a session high of $3.1620. The daily jump is notable, although on the year it is still down 16.01%. That suggests a nervous market, not necessarily a regime change.

What it means for stocks. For U.S. utilities and large industrial consumers, a rebound like this raises short-term cost expectations. In Europe, the direct effect is smaller than that of TTF, but it does influence the overall tone of the energy complex. Also, if gas heats up on both sides of the Atlantic, the old argument of tamed energy inflation starts to weaken. And that matters for markets that have gotten used to pricing in a more benign cost of money than might ultimately be available. The market has long wanted fast rate cuts; energy, somewhat rudely, keeps disagreeing.

Gold: down 0.45% with a firm dollar and less immediate refuge

Gold falls to $4,042.00 at 13:50 (5:50 in Mexico City), from $4,060.40 on Thursday. The decline coincides with a somewhat stronger dollar and comes ahead of U.S. PMIs at 15:45 (7:45 in Mexico City) and Michigan consumer sentiment at 16:00 (8:00 in Mexico City). The market is still weighing growth and rates.

What it means for stocks. A correcting gold price usually cools appetite for gold miners and, at the same time, reduces the immediate need for a safe haven. But I would not read this decline as risk being switched off. If U.S. activity data surprise to the upside, they would reinforce the idea of higher rates for longer and could keep weighing on the metal. If they disappoint, gold could quickly turn around. For stocks, the message is simple: less refuge today does not mean more structural calm. It only means the market has not yet resolved what matters more, growth or the cost of money.

Copper: up 2.11% and providing selective relief to miners and industrials

Copper rises to $6.497 at 13:50 (5:50 in Mexico City), with an intraday high of $6.498. It is up 15.40% on the year, although down 2.71% over the past month. This is the classic move that improves industrial sentiment, but without permission for euphoria.

What it means for stocks. Higher copper tends to support miners, metals firms and manufacturers tied to investment and the power grid. In Spain, the effect is more indirect, but it shows up in the read on steelmakers and cyclical stocks. Even so, it is worth separating metals. Acerinox is up and ArcelorMittal is down because the market is not rewarding only the metal price; it also discounts energy, end demand and margins. If copper improves while the European PMIs released this morning cool, with the eurozone manufacturing reading at 52.4 and services at 51.7, the signal is mixed. There is activity, but less room to spare.

My take

For me, today it is not just Brent that matters; it is energy as a whole, and especially gas. That changes the read quite a bit versus a normal oil session. A lower barrel would have given airlines and consumer stocks some breathing room if the rest of the complex had cooperated. That is not happening. When TTF is up 4.17% and Henry Hub 10.73%, I prefer not to buy the energy-relief narrative. I think it is more serious to watch costs than to celebrate an isolated pullback in crude.

What would make me change my mind is pretty clear. First, the U.S. PMIs at 15:45 (7:45 in Mexico City) and Michigan sentiment at 16:00 (8:00 in Mexico City): if they clearly cool, the dollar could ease and relieve some of the pressure on commodities and stocks. Second, in Europe, the market will have its eyes on the ECB on 29/10, with a decision at 14:15 (7:15 in Mexico City). My main risk is that the market continues to price in easier money than energy and activity allow. When that happens, valuations usually argue first and ask questions later.

Further reading

• My previous analysis: Brent leads: the commodities moving stocks today
• Stock investing guide — basic concepts for making better decisions

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves a risk of loss of capital.