U.S. Core PCE: the data moving the stock market today

U.S. Core PCE: six macro keys for the stock market: U.S. Core PCE

U.S. Core PCE: the: updated analysis with context for investors.

U.S. Core PCE

The U.S. core PCE for August is scheduled for 14:30 CEST (6:30 Mexico City). This inflation indicator excludes food and energy; the previous year-on-year reading was 3.3%. Today’s figure has not yet been published. (investing.com)

Analysis. This is the key release: a persistent reading could push bond yields higher and pressure tech stocks, which are sensitive to the cost of money. If it moderates, it could ease pressure on the S&P 500 and support risk appetite. Also watch the dollar: its moves feed through to the IBEX and Latin American stock markets, although the reaction will depend on the rest of the figures released at the same time.

U.S. GDP, final estimate

The third estimate of U.S. second-quarter GDP is scheduled for 14:30 CEST (6:30 Mexico City). The second estimate put annualized growth at 1.5%; today, possible revisions will be released along with the annual update of the national accounts. (bea.gov)

Analysis. An upward revision would reinforce the growth thesis, but it could also keep market rates elevated if it coincides with sticky inflation. A downward revision would favor bonds only if it does not raise concerns about corporate earnings. Do not confuse this second-quarter reading with an update on the current quarter.

German import prices

Published at 8:00 CEST (0:00 Mexico City): German import prices rose 8.3% year-on-year in August, versus 8.0% expected and 6.8% previously. Energy was the main driver. (tradingeconomics.com)

Analysis. This is a sign of cost pressure, not proof that the full increase will reach consumers. If companies pass on the higher costs, concerns about inflation and ECB rates would increase; if they absorb the cost, margins would suffer. Watch European bonds, industry, and consumer stocks before attributing any market move solely to this figure.

U.S. personal spending

August personal spending is scheduled for 14:30 CEST (6:30 Mexico City). The calendar shows a forecast for a 0.8% monthly increase, versus 0.2% previously; there is still no published figure for today. (investing.com)

Analysis. Solid consumer spending would support revenue expectations for companies, especially those focused on the U.S. market. But if it coincides with elevated core PCE, the stock market could focus on the risk of higher rates. The combination matters more than either headline on its own.

Chicago PMI

The September Chicago PMI is scheduled for 15:45 CEST (7:45 Mexico City). Its previous reading was 47.1 points; a value below 50 indicates contraction. Today’s result is not yet known. (investing.com)

Analysis. A rebound above 50 would support industrial stocks, although its scope is regional and national data carry more weight. If it remains in contraction, watch whether bond yields fall: that could ease pressure on growth companies, but it would not necessarily offset fears of weaker demand.

German retail sales

Published at 8:00 CEST (0:00 Mexico City): German retail sales rose 1.3% month-on-month in August, below the 1.5% expected. The previous figure was revised to -3.2%. (tradingeconomics.com)

Analysis. There is a rebound after the previous drop, but coming in below expectations limits enthusiasm for consumer companies. The key is whether spending can hold up while imported costs rise. For the European stock market, that combination raises a specific question: will companies be able to protect sales without losing margin?

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice.

Keep reading on the blog: U.S. jobless claims: today’s macro keys and U.S. CPI today: the macro data driving the stock market.