Today's macro agenda: PMIs slow down in Europe and the U.S. takes the lead

Europe opens with worse-than-expected PMIs and leaves the afternoon in U.S. hands: today’s macro agenda

Today’s macro calendar has already delivered an uncomfortable signal for European equities: October PMIs came in weaker than expected in France and across the eurozone. That does not seem like a minor detail to me. With the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.33% at 10:45 and the IBEX 35 off 0.16%, the market is reading softer growth just as money still has a price.

Updated at 11:00 (Madrid time) on October 23, 2026.

Today’s macro calendar (Madrid time)

Eurozone PMI: momentum is cooling more than expected

At 10:00 (2:00 in Mexico City), the eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 versus 52.7 expected and 52.9 previously. Services fell to 51.7, below the 52.6 consensus and the prior 53.0. Earlier, France had already disappointed with 49.3 in manufacturing and 48.4 in services.

What this means for equities. For European equities, the message is not a friendly one. Weaker PMIs tend to put pressure on industrials, cyclicals and banks if the market interprets them as softer activity and less credit momentum. The potential relief would come through rates, but I would be cautious with that argument: a mild slowdown alone does not force the ECB into quick policy shifts. If growth softens without a sharp deterioration, valuations still run into the headwind of a demanding cost of money. In addition, a weaker euro at 1.1194 against the dollar does help exporters somewhat, but it does not solve a demand problem if the slowdown gains traction.

France and Germany: divergence exists, but it does not fully offset the weakness

France was the weak spot at 09:15 (1:15 in Mexico City): manufacturing at 49.3 versus 50.5 expected and services at 48.4 versus 50.7. Germany, at 09:30 (1:30 in Mexico City), held up better in manufacturing at 54.2 versus 53.5 expected, although services came in at 51.7 versus 52.5.

What this means for equities. The market does distinguish here, but not enough to celebrate. Germany holding up in industry helps contain the damage in autos, chemicals and capital goods. The problem is that the German services sector is also cooling and France is below 50 in both readings, a threshold the market does not usually ignore. When two core economies send mixed signals, the index ends up looking at the aggregate, and the aggregate is worse today. That is why I think it makes sense for the DAX to be down 0.43% by mid-morning and for the Euro Stoxx 50 to find no clear support despite the stronger German industrial reading.

UK PMI: positive surprise, but limited reach for European equities

At 10:30 (2:30 in Mexico City), the United Kingdom posted a manufacturing PMI of 52.8 versus 51.8 expected and a services PMI of 53.1 versus 51.8. These are better-than-expected figures and also above the previous readings.

What this means for equities. It is a good data point for overall risk tone, especially because it suggests the slowdown is not uniform across Europe. It may offer some support to financials, consumer names and stocks tied to the UK domestic cycle. That said, its ability to move continental equities today seems secondary to me. European trading is driven more by the Germany-France axis and, this afternoon, by the United States. In sessions like this, a good UK number helps, but it does not change direction if the eurozone is losing momentum and Wall Street arrives highly sensitive to any clue on growth and rates.

U.S.: manufacturing PMI due at 15:45 and Michigan confidence at 16:00

The most delicate part of today’s macro agenda comes in the afternoon. At 15:45 (7:45 in Mexico City), the U.S. manufacturing PMI is due, with consensus at 55.4, and the services PMI at 57.9. Then, at 16:00 (8:00 in Mexico City), the final University of Michigan confidence reading is expected at 46.3.

What this means for equities. Here, it is not only about whether the data beats or misses, but by how much and in what combination. Solid PMIs with stable confidence would support U.S. futures, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.33% at 10:50 and the S&P 500 E-mini flat, but they could also reopen the debate about rates staying high for longer. That balance is not comfortable for technology or discretionary consumer stocks. If, on the other hand, PMIs and confidence weaken at the same time, the market could read that as slower growth and punish cyclicals, energy and banks, although with some relief in bonds. For Europe, the reference point is twofold: Wall Street’s direction from 15:30 (7:30 in Mexico City) and the dollar’s reaction, which is somewhat firmer today with the DXY at 101.80.

My reading

I see a session that is less innocent than the moderate drop in European indexes suggests. What has changed versus the start of the week is that waiting for central bank support is no longer enough. Eurozone PMIs cool growth, but they do not guarantee a quick shift in monetary policy. To me, that nuance matters far more than a tenth up or down in the stock market. If the U.S. posts solid PMIs this afternoon, the market will once again have to live with the idea of higher rates for longer, which remains the scenario investors least want to price in for real.

I would change my view if the U.S. numbers come in clearly below forecasts at 15:45 (7:45 in Mexico City) and 16:00 (8:00 in Mexico City), and if that disappointment is accompanied by a weaker dollar and a better equity-market reaction. The main risk is the opposite: that the market tries to celebrate any weak data as a shortcut to rate cuts. That reading does not convince me much. Without a clearer slowdown, the cost of money will continue to weigh on margins, credit and valuations.

Further reading

• My previous analysis: Today’s macro data: U.S. unemployment and eurozone confidence
• Stock market investing guide — basic concepts to make better decisions

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves the risk of losing invested capital.