Euro dollar today: EUR/USD falls to 1.1198 amid dollar strength

The euro loses altitude while the dollar regains the upper hand: Euro dollar today: the

Euro dollar today: the: updated analysis with context for investors.

Euro dollar today falls to 1.1198 at 20:30 (12:30 in Mexico City), a drop of 0.33% versus Thursday’s close. To me, the move fits quite well with what the session left behind: weaker-than-expected eurozone PMIs, a firmer dollar index, and a market that still rewards the cost of money in the United States.

Quotes at 20:30 (Madrid time) on October 23, 2026.

EUR/USD: the euro gives ground after weaker eurozone PMIs

The clearest reference point of the day came in the morning. At 10:00 (2:00 in Mexico City), the eurozone manufacturing PMI was published at 52.4 versus 52.7 expected, and services at 51.7 versus 52.6. Later, in the afternoon, the United States held up better: its manufacturing PMI came out at 56.0 at 15:45 (7:45 in Mexico City).

What it means. The foreign exchange market usually does not forgive a growth divergence when the price of money remains a decisive variable as well. If Europe loses some traction and the United States maintains a firmer tone, the real-rate and expectations differential again works in favor of the dollar. That puts pressure on the euro and has a direct reading for equities. A weaker euro often helps part of Europe’s exporters, but it does not fix on its own a cycle with less momentum. For anyone investing outside their base currency, the exchange rate is no longer just a technical detail: it can eat a significant part of returns even when the asset rises.

Dollar index: the DXY rises while the U.S. 10-year yield brushes 5%

The dollar index moves up to 101.83 at 20:20 (12:20 in Mexico City), rising 0.21%. At the same time, the yield on the U.S. 10-year bond stands at 4.986%, after touching 5.003% intraday. No need to dress it up: the dollar still has a very serious long rate behind it.

What it means. When the U.S. bond once again approaches 5%, the market reopens an old debate that never really goes away: what are risk assets really worth if money stops being cheap? A firmer dollar and higher yields usually tighten global financial conditions. That weighs more heavily on emerging markets, on companies with dollar debt, and on very richly valued stock markets, such as the U.S. In Europe, the hit comes through another channel: international capital compares returns and, if the U.S. risk-free asset offers more, the appetite to pay high multiples elsewhere shrinks.

USD/JPY: the yen strengthens, but the underlying trend does not change

The dollar falls against the yen to 156.8600, a decline of 0.80%, while euro/yen loses 1.16% and ends at 175.6000. Japan published overnight a National Core CPI in line at 2.1% and a preliminary manufacturing PMI with an expected 54.5, in a session that reinforced the cross’s sensitivity to any shift in expectations ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on 10/29 and 10/30.

What it means. Here it is worth separating noise from trend. The yen rebound can provide some relief to Asia and temporarily ease imported pressure, but in my view it does not invalidate the main issue: as long as the interest-rate differential with the United States remains wide, each stretch of yen strength will have to earn respect again and again. For Japanese equities, a somewhat firmer currency can reduce momentum for exporters. For a global portfolio, by contrast, it is a reminder of something uncomfortable: hedging or not hedging currency exposure changes far more than it seems when central banks move at different speeds.

GBP/USD: the pound falls despite better-than-expected UK PMIs

The pound retreats against the dollar to 1.3372, down 0.18% on the day. This happens despite the United Kingdom publishing a manufacturing PMI of 52.8 versus 51.8 expected at 10:30 (2:30 in Mexico City) and a services PMI of 53.1 versus 51.8. Earlier, GfK consumer confidence had disappointed at -24 versus -14 forecast.

What it means. The pound offers a useful lesson: beating a single forecast is not always enough if the dollar is capturing the global flow. The market values activity, yes, but it also discounts the combination of growth, inflation, and the central bank’s response. If the greenback dominates on rates and safe-haven demand, even a reasonable surprise in the UK can come up short. For the UK stock market, a somewhat weaker pound can help international companies that earn revenue abroad. For investors in pounds or from Europe, however, the result is the same: final returns depend as much on the currency as on the asset being measured.

USD/MXN: the Mexican peso improves today, but finishes the week under pressure

The dollar falls against the Mexican peso to 18.6569, down 0.12% in the session. Even so, it is worth keeping the context in mind: over five sessions USD/MXN is up 1.17%, and over one month it gains 7.93%. Today’s move sounds more like a pause than a turn.

What it means. In Latin America, the peso’s behavior remains a good gauge of risk appetite and of the punishment imposed by a strong dollar. A daily respite helps, but it does not change the picture if global financial conditions remain tight. For a portfolio in Mexico, the move has two readings. On one hand, a drop in USD/MXN eases the bill for dollar assets or debt. On the other, if the dollar tightens again, flows into emerging markets can cool quickly. Discipline matters more than opinion there.

My take

I would not read the drop in EUR/USD as an isolated accident. I see a market that continues to punish the currency whose macro block is weakening first and whose monetary authority has a harder time sounding hawkish without growth complaining. The fact that the dollar index is rising and the U.S. 10-year bond is nearing 5% seems more relevant to me than the noise of a single session. The IBEX 35, which closed up 0.40%, held up better than the Euro Stoxx 50, which fell 0.31%, but that European resilience is not enough, in my view, to let our guard down.

What would make me change tone would be a fairly specific combination: that the ECB on 10/29 at 14:15 (7:15 in Mexico City) shows more firmness than the market currently expects, and that the Fed on 10/28 at 19:00 (12:00 in Mexico City) does not reinforce the idea of higher rates for longer. If that does not happen, the dollar bias will remain alive. The main risk is not only for the currency. It is for global equity valuation, for the cost of hedging portfolios, and for the purchasing power of savings when money once again has a real price.

To go deeper

• My previous analysis: Euro dollar today: EUR/USD falls to 1.1226 and holds above 1.12
• How to know your risk profile — before trading any asset

This article is general financial information and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk of losing the capital invested.